Flipping the Coin

I have waited longer than I did last year before resuming this blog for one simple reason: injury. Over the winter break I severely sprained my ankle while climbing in Colorado. The trip was essentially ruined. More demoralizing than that was the concern that I would not be able to train for and run the ultra-marathon again. Without the ultra, there was no scholarship as this blog, my preparation, and the race itself were integral components. For the month following, I perched on my bike, set up in a track-stand in the basement, and wore down the rubber on the tires. Running was temporarily out of the question.

There was a lot of time to think while pedaling away the hours, staring out the window at the pooling mud and thickening carpets of moss in my backyard. At first I considered soliciting donations regardless of whether I trained for and ran the race. That idea was quickly wiped away as it lacked substance. The scholarship is a demonstration of my own personal determination and willingness to put forth substantial effort to reach a goal. A hand out for a handout is weak and not in the spirit of the endeavor.

More than a few people have asked me if I planned to attempt to repeat the scholarship and the ultra-marathon. Some seemed to suggest that my point had already been made, that a student was served, and that the goal was achieved. Yet I was left to wonder if it was all a fluke, like the first time the New England Patriots won the Super Bowl in 2002; or if it was something repeatable like when they won again in 2004…and again in 2005. We often judge success by whether it is something that can be replicated.

Of course there is also the element of luck. Everyone can call heads or tails and be occasionally right. Sometimes the elements of chance line up perfectly for you, and by some bizarre arrangement of the cosmos you make the right call every time and therefore have Rosencrantz and Guildenstern type moment.

Whether my ankle would hold out on a 50 mile trail run is to some degree a game of chance, but much of life is a matter of odds. I am not convinced that we should withhold reaching for those things that we wish to attain because the odds are not entirely in our favor. They rarely are. Last year I had to train while being a new dad to a six month old.

However, we can develop a plan that puts the odds in our favor. When computer scientist Roger Craig earned a chance to play on the TV game show Jeopardy, he took it upon himself to stack the odds in his favor. He studied databases of past Jeopardy questions to determine the statistical probability of certain types of questions showing up so that he could focus his study of the content. He also knew the probability of where the Daily Doubles would appear and the likelihood that he could answer the questions. The result was, among other things, a record single day’s winnings of $77,000.

I am running again, although tentatively, and plan on going ahead with the scholarship. Last year the unknowns included whether I could even finish the 50 miles. This year the questions surround how to deal with new liabilities, so my plan is to be a little bit of Mr. Craig—stacking the odds, the Patriots—with something to prove, and Rosencrantz—blithely calling “heads!” time and time again.